Distributional draft model · 2007–2026 · out-of-fold

NBA Draft Board / career projections

Every prospect gets a predicted distribution of realized value, not a single rank — a two-part model: a propensity that he ever becomes an NBA player, and, if he does, his availability × on-court quality, measured in Marginal Plus Minus (mPM), over four seasons (a Gaussian copula over the two). Never sticking is a floor below the worst player who plays, so a likely-bust sinks beneath a mediocre-but-real rotation piece. Each row shows the outcome curve, the quality and availability pieces, and — for closed classes — where he actually landed. Open any prospect for his scouting rubric and a career trajectory — rookie, four-year, and peak mPM drawn as a banded arc. Out-of-fold, leakage-free.