Veteran projection model · free-market pricing

Player Value Board / contract projections

Every current NBA player's projected mean annual market value — EB-RAPM aged on the delta-method curve, priced at the free-market rate (~2.8× the capped rate revealed by luxury-tax spending) — drawn against his actual contract. The line is the mean; the band is the 80% confidence interval around that mean estimate (parameter uncertainty + talent drift, not season-to-season noise). The amber line is salary — player-option years cap surplus at zero (he opts out if worth more), team-option years floor it (the team declines if worth less). The dashed region is max-ladder continuation: a young star's next deal is capped at the 25%/30% max tier, so value above the ceiling accrues as a proper option value E[(V−max)⁺]. Rookie-scale players with ≤2 seasons blend the draft model's prior with observed play.

mean value · 80% CI of the mean salary (option years priced as options) max-ladder continuation

Method. Rate = latest EB-RAPM aged by the within-player delta curve (peak 26), durability <75% availability steepens decline. Line = mean projected value; band = 80% CI of the mean estimate (EB standard error + 0.12/yr talent-drift variance; rookie-scale players: the blend-posterior sd of the draft prior × observed play). Value = FIML free-market price of projected WAR at each year’s projected cap; salary from scraped multi-year contracts with per-year option flags — player-option surplus = E[min(V−s,0)], team-option = E[max(V−s,0)] (Bachelier partial expectations over the mean’s uncertainty). Trade value = contract surplus + max-ladder continuation E[(V−max)⁺] at the service-tiered 25%/30% max (Rose-rule 30% for projected All-NBA-level seasons). Same engine as the Trade Analyzer.