Veteran projection model · free-market pricing

Player Value Board / contract projections

Every current NBA player's projected mean annual market value — his Marginal Plus Minus (mPM) aged on the delta-method curve, turned into Marginal WAR (mWAR) and priced at the free-market rate (~2.8× the capped rate revealed by luxury-tax spending) — drawn against his actual contract. The line is the mean; the band is the 80% confidence interval around that mean estimate (parameter uncertainty + talent drift, not season-to-season noise). The amber line is salary — player-option years cap surplus at zero (he opts out if worth more), team-option years floor it (the team declines if worth less). The dashed region is re-signing: after his contract, a chain of four-season deals to age 40, each counted only with the chance he re-signs with his club, at his value minus his expected pay (the 25/30/35% max with the chance it's a max deal, otherwise what players like him re-sign for). Rookie-scale players with ≤2 seasons blend the draft model's prior with observed play.

mean value · 80% CI of the mean salary (option years priced as options) re-signing

Method. mPM = latest EB-RAPM aged by the within-player delta curve (peak 26), durability <75% availability steepens decline. Line = mean projected value; band = 80% CI of the mean estimate (EB standard error + 0.12/yr talent-drift variance; rookie-scale players: the blend-posterior sd of the draft prior × observed play). A player who missed the latest season keeps his last rating, aged through the years he missed with a year’s talent drift added to its error for each; his availability counts that season as games missed hurt. Value = FIML free-market price of projected mWAR at each year’s projected cap; salary from scraped multi-year contracts with per-year option flags — player-option surplus = E[min(V−s,0)], team-option = E[max(V−s,0)] (Bachelier partial expectations over the mean’s uncertainty). Trade value = contract surplus + re-signing: P(re-signs) compounding at each deal's end × (value − expected pay), the pay the service-tiered max with P(max deal) or the fitted non-max share otherwise, not floored. Same engine and rule as the Trade Lab and the draft board.