A magnifying glass over prospect files
From the columnIs Anybody Actually Good at This?As my grandfather always said, the biggest room in the house is room for improvement. That goes for front offices, too.Ben Stupendous · Sep 27, 2026 · 21 min read
A lottery drum of numbered balls
From the columnThe Draft Model’s Report CardFifteen drafts graded on the calls that cost real money: the stars it saw, the ones it missed, and what it makes of the 2026 class.Ben Stupendous · Sep 25, 2026 · 12 min read
A calculator, a chart and a basketball
From the columnOur Numbers and Everyone Else’sWin Shares, VORP, DARKO and the rest all try to answer the same question. Here’s what each one counts, which ones predict, and where ours wins, ties and loses.Ben Stupendous · Sep 25, 2026 · 18 min read
Basketballs spread along a bell curve
From the columnThe Best and Worst Trades, Graded TwiceEvery NBA trade since 1999-00, graded once on what was knowable the day it was made and once on how it turned out.Ben Stupendous · Oct 5, 2026 · 6 min read
All 7 columns →

The economics of building an NBA roster

The market for NBA talent · 2025-26

Who creates the most value?

All 539 players →
#PlayerTeammWARSalaryMarket valueSurplus
1Nikola JokićDEN19.4$55M$181M+$126M
2Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC17.1$38M$162M+$124M
3Victor WembanyamaSAS13.5$13M$130M+$117M
4Donovan MitchellCLE12.6$46M$122M+$76M
5Kevin DurantHOU12.3$55M$120M+$65M

mWAR is wins above replacement on this model’s scale (replacement level −1.77 mPM). Market value is those wins at what clubs pay for wins on the open market; surplus is market value minus salary. How it’s measured →

Find the market's mistakes

Paid too little. Paid too much.

Undervalued

Veteran contracts returning far more than they cost.

Explore undervalued →
Overvalued

Veteran contracts that cost more than the production they buy.

  • Jerami Grant POR−$134M2023-24 deal: 3 seasons played, 2 to go
  • Kyle Kuzma MIL−$97M2023-24 deal: 3 seasons played, 1 to go
  • Nic Claxton BKN−$96M2024-25 deal: 2 seasons played, 2 to go
Explore overvalued →

Each contract whole: what it has returned beyond its pay in the seasons played, plus the projection for the seasons it has left, in today's dollars. Negotiated contracts only: rookie-scale and max deals are set by the league's collective bargaining agreement, not by the market (a max deal that has gone underwater still counts as overvalued).

Trade Lab

What is your trade actually worth?

Priced as the change in each club’s whole-roster surplus: players, minutes, picks, re-signing rights and title odds.

First club
Second club
Price it in the Trade Lab →

Opens the Lab with the trade staged. Add picks, more players or a third club there.

Every real trade, graded →

A real trade, graded · July 2026
BOS receives
  • Paul George
  • PHI 2028 1st
  • PHI 2028 2nd
  • PHI 2030 2nd
  • PHI 2031 1st
+$355M
roster surplus
PHI receives
  • Jaylen Brown
−$350M
roster surplus
Open it in the Trade Lab →
GM Game

Run an NBA club.

The real 2026-27 league, every contract and pick, the full cap rules, and 29 computer GMs.

Play the GM Game →
A draft board above a podiumDraft boardEvery prospect since 2007, valued to the club that drafts him. A rising line of bars, a basketball at the topCareersValue and pay, season by season, for every player. A basketball weighed against a stack of coinsValue boardToday's players, projected forward and priced.

Traditional statistics ask how good a player was. The Marginal Player asks what he adds to a team, and what that is worth. Read the methodology →