The Marginal Player · The numbers behind better rosters

Who is actually worth it?

NBA player value, measured in marginal wins and set against what teams pay for it — contracts, drafts and trades.

Explore player values → Try the Trade Lab

The model sees · 2025-26
Illustrated portrait of Nikola Jokić
20.1
wins above replacement
1st in 2025-26
Illustrated portrait of Victor Wembanyama
+$119M
surplus over his salary
on $13M · 3rd in wins
Illustrated portrait of Collin Gillespie
+$68M
surplus over his salary
on $2.3M · 6.8 wins
Illustrated portrait of Trae Young
−$37M
surplus over his salary
on $46M · 0.7 wins
The value board

Who creates the most value?

All 538 players, 2025-26 →
#PlayerTeamWARSalarySurplus
1Nikola JokićDEN20.1$55M+$137M
2Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC17.6$38M+$132M
3Victor WembanyamaSAS13.3$13M+$119M
4Donovan MitchellCLE13.0$46M+$82M
5Kevin DurantHOU12.4$55M+$69M
Find the market's mistakes

Paid too little. Paid too much.

Undervalued

Veterans producing far more than their contracts pay for.

Explore undervalued →
Overvalued

Veteran contracts that cost more than the production they buy.

Explore overvalued →

Negotiated contracts only: rookie-scale and max deals are set by the league's collective bargaining agreement, not by the market (a max deal that has gone underwater still counts as overvalued).

Trade Lab

What is your trade actually worth?

Stage any trade, past or present, and price it as the change in each club's total roster surplus — players, minutes, picks, re-signing rights and title odds.

Open the Trade Lab → Every real trade, graded →

A real trade, graded · July 2026
BOS receives
  • Paul George
  • PHI 2028 1st
  • PHI 2028 2nd
  • PHI 2030 2nd
  • PHI 2031 1st
+$298M
roster surplus
PHI receives
  • Jaylen Brown
−$280M
roster surplus
Open it in the Trade Lab →
Draft boardEvery prospect since 2007, valued to the club that drafts him. CareersValue and pay, season by season, for every player. Value boardToday's players, projected forward and priced.
Latest insights

From the column

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Why The Marginal Player?
Traditional statistics ask
“How good was this player?”
The Marginal Player asks
“How much does he add to a team — and what is that worth?”

Player value is estimated in wins above replacement and priced at what a club would pay for those wins on an open market. On this scale a great season reads around 20 wins, not the 10 of public win statistics, and the best players are worth more than their team's entire salary cap. Replacement level sits at −1.77 RAPM.

Read the methodology →